Based on data from VoteHub, trusted pollsters in the U.S. are currently showing Joe Biden with a slight edge over former President Donald Trump.
Both contenders won enough primaries in March to secure their party’s nominations for the 2024 presidential race. Polls suggest the rematch between the two for the White House is shaping up to be a tight contest, with each candidate either neck and neck or holding a slight lead.
VoteHub compiles data from top-rated pollsters, giving Biden a narrow lead over Trump—45.9% to 45.8%—in the recent 28-day survey period. This lead has been consistent.
The national polls may suggest that Trump’s legal issues are affecting his electoral prospects. Morning Consult’s latest data shows Biden now leading by a percentage point after Trump lost his previous lead. This shift marks a significant sway in favor of the Democratic candidate.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts also indicate a potential Biden win. The Electoral College system in the U.S. means that popular vote victory is not a guarantee of overall success in presidential elections.
Mark Shanahan, a U.K.-based American politics professor, notes the impact of various events on the candidates’ campaigns. He points out that ongoing issues such as the Hunter Biden trial and foreign policy challenges in Gaza are influencing the race.
Anticipation is high for the upcoming debates, with the first one scheduled for June 27 in Atlanta. The presidential election itself is set for November 5, 2018.