A recent survey suggests that the number of Americans choosing not to vote in the upcoming <a href="https://newslivecenter.com/tag/2024-election/”>2024 election could potentially rise.
The highly anticipated 2020 rematch between President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential nominees is expected to be one of the most significant races in modern history. As the election season unfolds, they are sparring over various issues, including the economy, abortion, Israel-Hamas, and democracy.
However, a CBS News/YouGov survey indicates that a growing number of Americans are now considering not voting in the upcoming election.
Only 80 percent of the 1,615 registered voters surveyed between June 6 and 7 stated that they would definitely vote in November.
The percentage of Americans certain to vote is lower than it was during a similar poll conducted in 2020. In the 2020 survey conducted between April 28 and May 1 among 2,200 adults, 89 percent expressed the intent to vote. The slight decrease in voter turnout could have a notable impact on a closely contested election likely to be decided by a few swing states with narrow margins.
Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 underscores how crucial every vote is, with the election hinging on a few key states won by small margins.
Some speculate that the potential decrease in turnout could be attributed to dissatisfaction with the candidates. Political analysts suggest that both Biden and Trump’s controversial and polarizing personas might deter some voters, particularly independents and moderates.
According to Grant Davis Reeher of Syracuse University, various factors such as the Gaza War and lingering economic concerns might contribute to lower voter turnout.
Implications of Lower Turnout for Biden and Trump
Reeher posits that reduced voter turnout could potentially benefit Trump more than Biden, as historical data shows Republicans have had more consistent turnout. Issues deflating voters seem more concentrated on the Democratic side, particularly among younger voters.
In 2020, voter eligibility saw a significant increase, with 66.8 percent of eligible voters participating compared to the previous election. The demographic shifts among voters could impact party preferences.
Analysts note that higher voter participation traditionally favored Democrats, but changing demographics could alter this trend. Strategies such as voter outreach and campaign mobilization are critical in garnering support.