As Vice President Kamala Harris eyes Arizona Senator Mark Kelly as her potential running mate for the upcoming presidential election, Democrats might be stumbling into a fresh dilemma in this crucial swing state.
Last Sunday, following a series of internal debates about leadership transition within the party, President Joe Biden decided to step back from the race and endorsed Harris as the likely Democratic nominee. This decision came after Biden’s challenging performance against former President Donald Trump, who has recently secured the GOP nomination, during a debate in Atlanta last month.
Senator Kelly is one of the few Democrats under consideration for Harris’ vice presidential slot. With a solid track record at the polls and notable popularity in Arizona — a state critical to the election’s outcome — Kelly is seen as a significant advantage for the Democrats against Trump.
Nonetheless, some party members have raised concerns that Kelly’s ascension to the vice presidency could lead to a tighter race in the Senate for 2026.
Should Kelly become VP, Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs would appoint a replacement until elections take place. This would allow Democrats to retain the seat for a couple of years. The uncertainty lies in whether his successor would possess the same electoral appeal, especially if the political landscape favors Republicans during Harris’ initial midterms.
Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz emphasized the need for Harris to weigh the implications of Kelly’s Senate seat when making her choice. He mentioned, “This is a calculation that the vice president and her team have to make. And that’s certainly a factor. But there are trade-offs no matter who you pick. So, foremost, she needs to choose someone she feels comfortable partnering with.”
Senator Peter Welch from Vermont also noted in a conversation with Politico that Democrats might struggle to keep Kelly’s Senate seat if he becomes VP. He remarked, “But we have to remember that the top priority is ensuring we win the presidency. That outweighs concerns about any individual Senate or House seat.”
Activist and former Florida state House candidate Elijah Manley shared his thoughts on social media, cautioning that while Kelly is a great candidate, selecting him could hand over the Senate seat to Republicans in 2026, jeopardizing Democratic chances for a majority in the Senate for the next decade and a half.
In response to these concerns, Kelly asserted during his remarks to Politico that, “We’re good at Senate races.” Indeed, Arizona has experienced a Senate election every year since 2016, with Democrats prevailing in each contest since 2018.
In 2016, Republican John McCain secured re-election by approximately 13 points. Then in 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema narrowly beat Republican Martha McSally by about 2.4 points. Two years later, Kelly won against McSally, replacing the late McCain, with the same margin. In the 2022 elections, Kelly beat Republican Blake Masters by nearly five points for a full term.
This year, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego is in a battle against Republican Kari Lake for the seat currently held by Sinema, who has switched to an independent party. Current polls indicate that Gallego has a slight edge over Lake, although the presidential race in Arizona appears more competitive.
Besides Kelly, Harris is reportedly considering several other candidates for her running mate, including Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.