Court Puts the Brakes on Legal Betting for US Elections

A recent ruling from a U.S. appeals court has put a pause on legal betting for the upcoming election in November.

On Thursday, Judge Jia Cobb from the U.S. District Court permitted Kalshi, a prediction market based in New York, to start offering bets on election outcomes, particularly on party control in the House and Senate.

This was a significant moment as it marked the first time that bets on U.S. elections were officially authorized by the courts.

However, the approval was short-lived. Following an appeal by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals swiftly intervened, halting the betting process while they deliberate the matter. The timeline for their decision remains uncertain.

Despite the halt, Kalshi quickly launched its betting markets post-ruling, and they saw a flurry of activity. At one moment, a bet indicating Republican control over the Democrat-led Senate was valued at 76 cents, suggesting a $100 bet could net $129 if successful. Conversely, a bet for Democrats retaining the Republican-controlled House was valued at 63 cents, offering a potential payout of $154 on a $100 wager.

However, by late Thursday, the appeals court’s intervention removed these options from Kalshi’s site by Friday afternoon.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission expressed concerns over election integrity, warning that such betting could lead to attempts at election manipulation for profit.

Election trust is especially pertinent this cycle, as former President Donald Trump has perpetuated claims, without evidence, that the 2020 election was stolen through widespread fraud. This narrative continues despite Trump facing serious charges from the U.S. Department of Justice, which he contests as being politically motivated.

In the meantime, early voting has kicked off in Alabama, with absentee ballots already dispatched to voters who qualified for them. Other states, like Wisconsin, are set to begin their mail-in ballot processes next week.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.