As the 2024 presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump is receiving some intriguing feedback from a quirky “cookie poll” in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state.
Lochel’s Bakery, located in Hatboro, PA, is hosting this lighthearted poll by selling cookies decorated with presidential campaign colors—red sprinkles for “Trump 2024” and blue for “Harris 2024.”
According to a recent Fox News interview, Trump is currently ahead with 5,200 cookies sold, compared to Harris’ 500. The bakery noted on Facebook, “Keep calm and eat a cookie! This poll is not scientific, just delicious,” highlighting their fun, non-serious approach to tracking election sentiments.
Since 2012, Lochel’s Bakery has conducted this informal poll for each election cycle. They accurately predicted three out of the last four elections, although they did miss the mark in 2020 when Joe Biden won, despite Trump selling more cookies that year.
Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes make it a hotbed for both Trump and Vice President Harris as they campaign for votes. Recent polling indicates that Harris currently leads the state, although her advantage appears to be shrinking. As of now, Harris is ahead by 0.7 points, showing a slight tightening since earlier this month.
Polling insights from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, and The Economist suggest that while Harris was once ahead by larger margins, Trump’s support is on the rise in the battleground state. Nate Silver’s model even points to a 0.5-point gain for Trump recently.
To secure a victory in Pennsylvania, it’s vital for Harris to learn from past campaigns, particularly Hillary Clinton’s 2016 run, which focused heavily on major metropolitan areas while overlooking significant portions of the state. Trump’s outreach to smaller cities made a difference in his previous win.
Pennsylvania has leaned Democrat in seven of the last eight presidential elections, with the exception of Trump’s narrow victory in 2016.