Donald Trump, the former president, is experiencing a decrease in his lead over Vice President Joe Biden in Florida, which is his home state.
Trump has made Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach his home since 2019. While Florida was previously a swing state, it has now become a Republican stronghold after Trump won it in the last two presidential elections.
Although earlier polls showed Trump leading in Florida during the 2020 election cycle, recent surveys from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Main Street Research released on March 23 indicate that Trump’s lead has diminished by nearly half in the past two months.
In FAU’s face-to-face matchup poll, Trump now holds a four-point lead over Biden. The April edition of the poll revealed Trump with 50% of the votes, while Biden had 42%.
Justin Sullivan
Dukhong Kim, an Associate Professor of Political Science at FAU, mentioned in a press release that Biden had made “modest gains,” making the race competitive in this crucial swing state.
The poll also revealed that Trump’s support decreased when respondents considered voting for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., allowing Biden to narrow Trump’s lead.
Currently, Trump leads with 43%, Biden trails with 37%, and Kennedy secures 10% of the vote. In April, Trump had a larger lead with 48%, compared to Biden’s 38% support.
Demographically, Trump is strongly supported by non-college-educated white voters, while Biden’s main backing comes from Black voters, with 68% supporting him.
Kim emphasized the importance of Biden’s campaign connecting more with traditional Democratic coalition partners, such as women, younger voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters, where Trump is maintaining his base, especially among whites without college degrees.
The FAU poll surveyed 878 Florida residents from June 8 to 9 and did not provide a margin of error.
Since Trump’s felony conviction in New York on May 30, Biden has gained ground over the former president in multiple polls, even in usually Republican-friendly states like Ohio.
Although Trump’s lead over Biden in Ohio has decreased, particularly in the recent special election where Democrats made gains, it raises concerns for Trump and his party going forward.