Big news in the electoral landscape! It seems that Nevada is swinging back toward Donald Trump, according to the latest projections from RealClearPolitics.
The polling tracker indicates that Trump is now leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada, with 48.2% of the vote compared to her 48%. This marks a shift from previous weeks, where Harris had consistently been ahead since early September, following Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
With Nevada’s 6 electoral votes, Trump’s lead has raised the stakes, forecasting him with 302 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 236. Notably, a recent poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO for The Wall Street Journal has Trump leading by 6 points in a one-on-one matchup and by 5 points when factoring in third-party candidates. The poll included 600 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
Ross D. Franklin and Alex Brandon/ASSOCIATED PRESS
This update follows closely on the heels of other shifts in key states: Trump is also now leading Michigan by 0.9 points and has a slim 0.1-point lead in Pennsylvania. In fact, RealClearPolitics now highlights Trump ahead in six out of seven critical swing states, with Harris only projected to win Wisconsin.
However, the Nevada race isn’t entirely one-sided. Other recent polls, like one from Emerson College for Nexstar, show Harris with a 1-point lead, while an InsiderAdvantage poll places Trump ahead by 1 point. Meanwhile, aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver still show Harris slightly ahead.
Historically, Nevada has leaned Democratic, favoring the party’s candidates since it backed Barack Obama in 2008. As the 2024 election approaches, it is shaping up to be among the tightest races in U.S. history, with many polls indicating Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck, often separated by just a point or two—within the margin of error.
As it stands, all eyes are on the swing states as both candidates vie for crucial electoral votes!