The Democratic turnout in Florida’s recent primary elections may offer a reality check for those optimistic about Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances in the traditionally conservative state this November.
Since entering the presidential race after President Biden’s exit on July 21, Harris has seen a bump in her poll numbers. Current national surveys indicate she has a slight edge over former President Donald Trump, and she’s also leading in several pivotal swing states.
In Florida specifically, polls suggest that Harris is down by just 2 points against Trump, making an upset look somewhat possible. However, the numbers tell a stark story: Republicans outnumber Democrats significantly in the state, and a Harris victory would hinge on a much higher Democratic turnout compared to recent elections, including last Tuesday’s primaries.
Out of 4.3 million registered Democrats in Florida, only 25.8% participated in the primaries, as reported by Florida’s Voice. Meanwhile, over 400,000 more Republicans voted, with a turnout rate of 28.9% among their 5.3 million registered voters.
Political expert Gordon noted that primary turnout often depends on the specific races and candidates involved, rather than predicting general election outcomes. “It’s an uphill battle for Harris to win Florida,” he explained, highlighting the state’s shift from purple to red over the years.
In presidential elections, turnout typically spikes. For example, 77% of registered voters cast their ballots in Florida during the 2020 election, where Trump won by about 3.5%. It’s important to consider the role of independents too, as the state has over 3.5 million voters with no party affiliation—less than 10% participated last Tuesday.
Political analyst Klink lamented that while national Democrats hope for Florida to be competitive again, the reality is that Republican registration has surged and enthusiasm remains high. He pointed out that the level of investment in advertising can indicate confidence in a state’s competitiveness, noting that only about $300,000 has been spent on presidential campaigning there so far, mainly by outside groups.
Despite the challenges, political science professor Dr. Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan believes the landscape might be shifting, suggesting the possibility of Florida being in play for Democrats.
Anna Moneymaker