If you’re in Texas, it’s time to prepare for some stormy showers as a ‘large area of disturbed weather‘ brews over the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect heavy rainfall in Texas and Mexico in the days ahead as a broad low-pressure system moves over the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts the formation of the first tropical depression or storm of the Atlantic season by midweek, with a 70% chance of it happening in the next 48 hours.
Even without full development, there will be days of intense rainfall in parts of southern Mexico and Central America, leading to possible life-threatening flooding and flash floods.
Meteorologist Pete Delkus hinted on X (formerly Twitter) that the Gulf disturbance could bring moisture into Texas, resulting in scattered showers and storms across North Texas. Although severe storms are not expected, brace for some summer storms back in the forecast.
Forecast by Weather Underground indicates Houston will experience rainfall from Monday morning, intensifying through Tuesday afternoon. Expected rainfall rates range from a quarter to an inch per hour between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. In Austin and San Antonio, rain is likely from Wednesday onwards as the system moves northwest, whereas Dallas may only see light showers late on Wednesday.
Meteorologist James Spann warned on X that the heavy rains could lead to life-threatening flooding. Currently, 14 National Weather Service flood warnings are active in eastern Texas and along the Louisiana coast.
While it’s uncertain if there will be significant impacts in Texas, the NWS has issued hazardous marine conditions alert in the Gulf. The NWS notice mentioned a Central American Gyre over southern Mexico and Central America, leading to expected rough seas and gale-force winds in the SE Gulf.
Conditions seem favorable for a tropical cyclone to form from this circulation, with a tropical depression or storm likely by midweek moving toward the western Gulf coast.