As we approach the 2024 election, the spotlight shifts to an election forecast released on Friday, which outlines the predicted Electoral College outcomes for Vice President Kamala Harris, the expected Democratic candidate, and Donald Trump, representing the GOP.
The forecast by The Economist indicates that both Harris and Trump have around a 50% chance of winning the Electoral College, which is pivotal as candidates need 270 electoral votes to clinch victory. It’s essential to note that winning the popular vote doesn’t automatically translate to a win in the electoral contest.
The projected median electoral votes are 272 for Harris and 266 for Trump, a notable change from the 2020 election where Trump secured 232 votes against Joe Biden’s 306.
This model, developed by Columbia University, assesses candidates’ probabilities of winning each state by analyzing national and state polls alongside economic indicators, historical voting trends, and demographics. It runs over 10,000 simulations to gauge potential electoral totals, highlighting that a tie in the Electoral College is extremely unlikely, at less than 1%.
Several battleground states will be critical, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan, which together hold 77 electoral votes. Pennsylvania appears particularly significant, with a 24% chance of being the deciding state, contributing 19 electoral votes.
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A recent Emerson College and RealClearPennsylvania poll highlights a tight race in Pennsylvania, showing Trump at 49% and Harris at 48%, indicating a statistical tie when factoring in a 3% margin of error.
This shift follows a dramatic turn in the Democratic landscape after Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris, who has since surged in polls, outperforming Trump in national and swing state averages, which is a stark contrast to Biden’s earlier standing.
Additionally, an analysis from Decision Desk HQ predicted that Trump could amass 312 electoral votes, the highest for a GOP candidate since 1988, with indications he may reclaim swing states that Biden flipped in 2020.
Contrastingly, a poll by The New York Times and Siena College reveals Harris leading in North Carolina (49-47%) and Arizona (50-45%), while Trump is ahead in Georgia (50-46%) and leads narrowly in Nevada (48-47%). This poll surveyed 2,670 likely voters across the mentioned states and has a 2.1% margin of error.