Historian Allan Lichtman recently shared insights about the potential impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race. During a YouTube livestream, he asserted that if Kennedy were to exit and back former President Donald Trump, it would actually benefit Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.
Lichtman mentioned that Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump wouldn’t significantly change the electoral dynamics, stating, “Absolutely correct” when asked if this move would help Harris. He noted that while he’s still monitoring Kennedy’s campaign, it doesn’t appear likely he will make a significant comeback.
Known for his election forecasting model, “The Keys to the White House,” Lichtman has garnered attention for accurately predicting the outcomes of the last ten elections. This success has earned him the nickname “the Nostradamus of U.S. elections.”
His model, outlined in a 2012 article for Social Education, relies on 13 criteria:
- Party mandate: The incumbent party has more House seats after midterms.
- No primary contest: No serious challengers for the incumbent party’s nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The current president is the incumbent party’s candidate.
- No third party: No significant independent or third-party campaigns.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy isn’t in recession during the campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Comparable economic growth to previous terms.
- Major policy change: The administration implements significant policy shifts.
- No social unrest: No ongoing social upheaval.
- No scandal: The administration is free from major scandals.
- No foreign or military failure: No significant failures abroad.
- Major foreign or military success: The administration achieves notable successes overseas.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent is a charismatic leader.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The opponent lacks charisma.
If six or more of these statements are false, the incumbent is predicted to lose; if five or fewer are false, they’re expected to win.
While Lichtman believes Kennedy’s exit would enhance the Democrats’ chances, other analysts argue it could be a boon for Trump. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, recently pointed out that Kennedy’s withdrawal might hurt Harris more, as he draws votes from Trump rather than her.
Polling data supports Silver’s view, showing that Kennedy is currently siphoning off more votes from Trump than from Harris when third-party candidates are considered.