Hurricane Milton Might Reach Category 4: A Comparison to Helene and Katrina

Hurricane Milton is on track to potentially grow into a Category 4 storm as it prepares to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday. This comes just over a week after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc in the Southeast, claiming over 227 lives across six states since it made landfall on September 26.

According to the Associated Press, this casualty count makes Helene the second-deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. in the last 50 years, second only to Hurricane Katrina, which caused at least 1,833 fatalities in 2005.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center suggests Milton will reach Category 3 status soon, with winds between 111-129 mph. Following similar patterns as Helene, there’s a chance it could even escalate to Category 4 in the coming days.

AccuWeather’s Chief Meteorologist, Jonathan Porter, has described Milton as potentially “a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians.” Evacuations are already in effect as Florida’s emergency management team gears up for the impact.

When Helene struck near Perry, Florida, it was classified as a strong Category 4 hurricane. In comparison, Katrina hit Florida as a weakened Category 1 on August 25, 2005, before rapidly intensifying to a Category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico, then ultimately making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 3.

Both hurricanes carried winds up to 140 mph, with Katrina reaching a staggering 175 mph at its peak. They also delivered severe storm surges and heavy rainfall, with Helene causing significant flooding in Asheville, North Carolina, and Katrina submerging 80% of New Orleans by August 31, 2005.

Milton is set to elevate water levels by 2 to 4 feet along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, leading to massive and destructive waves in coastal areas. Rainfall could reach up to 4 inches in some parts of the same region.

Hurricane Milton
AP

Helene’s storm surge peaked at over 15 feet in Florida’s Big Bend region, while Katrina’s max surge reached 11.5 feet; Philpot in Florida recorded 7.80 inches of rain during the event.

Per the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm conditions may begin as early as Monday morning in certain warning areas, with hurricane conditions possible by Monday afternoon.

A ‘Hurricane Watch’ is in effect for the stretch between Celestun and Cabo Catoche, while a ‘Tropical Storm Warning’ is established from Celestun to Cancun.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 35 counties, including Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, and more, as preparation efforts ramp up.

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