Polls show that California voters may be leaning away from progressive ballot measures this November, which could impact the upcoming Congressional elections and reflect on Governor Gavin Newsom’s plans for a potential presidential run.
This year, there are ten initiatives on the ballot, with a mix of citizen-led and legislative constitutional amendments. California is known for its direct democracy, making it easier for initiatives to appear on the ballot.
Alongside the presidential face-off between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, voters will tackle a range of issues, including LGBTQ+ rights and criminal justice reform.
A recent survey from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) indicates that some progressive policies are struggling to gain traction among voters in this historically Democratic state.
Despite a lack of significant Republican gains in California—where Harris is reportedly ahead by 26 points over Trump—there’s a notable split in voter sentiments regarding proposed measures. Many voters supporting Harris are still likely to reject certain liberal initiatives tied to the economy and criminal justice.
According to the poll, Proposition 32, which aims to raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour, shows only 44% support, with a surprising number of Democrats also planning to vote against it. This stems from worries about inflation and living costs, even though general opinion may lean towards wage increases.
Proposition 33, allowing local rent control, faces similar challenges, with only 42% of respondents in favor.
In contrast, Proposition 36, which introduces tougher penalties for drug-related crimes, enjoys substantial support at 73%. This indicates a divergence in attitudes toward crime measures, even with Newsom opposing the proposition, citing concerns about a return to outdated policies.
Moreover, Proposition 6, aimed at banning forced labor in prisons, is also meeting resistance, with 56% of voters likely to reject it, highlighting an unexpected hesitance even with no major campaign against it.
On the flip side, there is strong support for progressive initiatives like Proposition 3, which guarantees same-sex marriage rights, garnering 67% backing. Proposition 4, focused on $10 billion for climate change efforts, has 54% support as well.
Conducted from October 7-15, the poll surveyed 1,646 Californians, illustrating a notable shift towards more moderate viewpoints on fiscal and criminal justice issues, mirroring Harris’s campaign strategy as she appeals to centrist voters.
Baldassare commented on this shift, suggesting many voters are prioritizing issues over party affiliation in an increasingly divided political landscape. This dynamic could also influence Congressional races, as Democrats in competitive districts might reconsider their stances on progressive propositions.
Ultimately, the outcome of these ballot measures could reshape not only the state’s political landscape but also the Democratic strategy heading into the election season.