A model forecasting the 2024 election suggests that President Joe Biden is in a favorable position to overcome Donald Trump.
Renamed as 538 in 2005, FiveThirtyEight predicted Biden’s victory for November, forecasting Biden winning 53 out of 100 simulations while Trump winning 47.
The forecast models consider adjusted polling, economic and political data, and demographics to simulate potential outcomes.
Context
With only five months until the 2024 election, Biden and Trump, along with other contenders, are in a tight race.
At 81, Biden faces low approval ratings and age-related concerns as he gears up for the November election.
Trump, aiming for a second term, holds the distinction of being the only U.S. President convicted of a crime.
What We Know
538’s official prediction for the 2024 Election released on June 11 shows Biden slightly leading the race.
Biden is given a 53% chance of winning, with Trump not far behind at 47 out of 100, indicating a close contest up to November.
G. Elliott Morris from 538 shared, “The range of realistic Electoral College outcomes… shows how much could change by November (and how off the polls could be).” The model suggests a fierce competition between Biden and Trump, especially in swing states.
Factors like economic indicators and political changes may sway the outcome. Incumbent presidents historically have an edge in re-election.
As we track the story, stay tuned for updates.