It’s just four weeks until Americans head to the polls on November 5, and Vice President Kamala Harris is seeing her highest approval ratings in three years.
Since stepping in as the Democratic nominee in July, Harris has significantly closed the gap with Donald Trump. As of October 4, she boasts an approval rating of 45.6%, just slightly trailing a 46.7% disapproval rate, as reported by FiveThirtyEight.
This puts Harris at a -1.1 margin, her best performance since before October 2021, with nearly all polls aligning within this range.
In contrast, Trump, who doesn’t have a current rating as he’s out of office, recorded an approval of 44.2% exactly four weeks before the 2020 election, resulting in a much wider -8.1 margin against his disapproval rating of 52.3%.
Currently, Trump’s favorability stands at 43%, with an unfavorable rating of 52.6%, yielding a -9.6% margin. For comparison, Harris enjoys a favorability rating of 47.2% versus a disapproval of 46.5%, translating to a +0.6% margin.
Just before the 2020 election, Trump was trailing Biden in various forecasting models, and similarly, this year, FiveThirtyEight’s latest projections show Harris as the frontrunner.
Comments from analysts highlight that while Harris has made strides, she still needs to better connect with voters. Her initial campaign rollout was promising but needs further refinement.
With early voting already underway in 20 states, candidates are ramping up their final campaigns. The election is expected to hinge on key battleground states, particularly Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling, Harris holds slim leads in several Rust Belt states: she’s up by 1.8 points in Michigan, 1 point in Nevada, 0.7 points in Pennsylvania, and 1.8 points in Wisconsin.
On the flip side, Trump appears to be performing slightly better in the Sun Belt states, trailing Harris in Arizona by 1.4 points, Georgia by 1.2 points, and North Carolina by 0.6 points.