In an interesting turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris seems to be edging out former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a key battleground state that Trump previously won in both 2016 and 2020. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris leading with 49% compared to Trump’s 47%.
This poll, which surveyed 2,670 likely voters between August 8 and 15, also examined other battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, all known for their crucial electoral votes. Interestingly, Harris has a similar edge in Arizona at 50% to Trump’s 45%. However, Trump remains ahead in Georgia and Nevada, winning 50% to 46% and 48% to 47%, respectively.
North Carolina’s strong results for Harris are particularly noteworthy as Trump has typically dominated in this region, making it hard to envision a Democratic win here since Barack Obama last took the state in 2008. The shifting dynamics in the polls suggest that North Carolina could potentially be competitive after all.
In response, Trump’s campaign dismissed the polling as “wildly inaccurate,” arguing that it misrepresents the electoral landscape based on past results, yet they acknowledged that Georgia has been accurately tracked.
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Battleground states like North Carolina are pivotal for presidential campaigns due to their electoral votes, which are crucial for securing a total of 270 votes needed for victory. Harris would need to prevail in all competitive states, including those Trump won in previous elections to surpass him by more than 100 electoral votes.
Current betting markets like Polymarket give Harris only a 39% chance of winning North Carolina, a reflection of earlier polls where she was either trailing or tied with Trump. Additional polling, such as a YouGov Blue survey showing a tie at 46% and a Trafalgar Group poll placing Trump slightly ahead, confirms the tight race in the state.
However, since Biden’s surprising exit from the race on July 21 in favor of his vice president, Harris’s popularity has surged in multiple polls, positioning her favorably compared to Biden’s earlier standings. Observers suggest that if Harris manages to win North Carolina, it could resemble the Democratic wave of 2008 rather than the more challenging climate of 2020.
In a bid to solidify her support, Harris recently rallied in North Carolina, just days after Trump’s own event in the state, showcasing the competitive nature of this impending election battle.