Recent polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a region that favored Trump by over 7 points in the 2020 election.
Since stepping up as the Democratic frontrunner after President Joe Biden exited the race in July, Harris has gained traction, though she still faces tough competition in crucial battleground states.
Maine, which has four electoral votes, is generally Democratic-leaning, but its unique voting system allows Republicans to capture one Electoral College vote, as it splits its votes during presidential elections.
Harris is expected to win Maine’s two statewide votes and the 1st Congressional District, which comprises more liberal areas like Portland and popular coastal towns.
However, the 2nd Congressional District leans more Republican, featuring vast rural regions in the north alongside competitive cities like Augusta, Bangor, and Lewiston.
A recent University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll conducted from August 15 to 19 among 999 registered voters revealed Harris leading Trump by 5 points in the 2nd District (49% to 44%).
Statewide, she holds a more commanding 17-point advantage over Trump (55% to 38%), with 4% of voters backing other candidates and 2% undecided.
In the 1st Congressional District, Harris has a significant 29-point lead (62% to 33%).
Another UNH poll from late July had Harris leading by 8 points statewide (48% to 40%), while Trump had a slight edge in the 2nd District (44% to 40%).
In the 2020 election, President Biden won Maine by about 9 points (53% to 44%), while Trump captured the 2nd District with a 7-point margin (53% to 46%).
The state was more closely contested in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won by just 2.9 points, but Trump took the 2nd District by around 10 points.
The Cook Political Report currently categorizes Maine as “Likely Democrat” and the 2nd Congressional District as “Likely Republican,” suggesting that neither race is competitive at this time, though they could still become more engaged.