Vice President Kamala Harris has received promising updates regarding her standing in North Carolina, a state that President Joe Biden lost in the last election.
On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report announced a significant change, moving North Carolina from “leans Republican” to a “toss-up” in its 2024 election forecast. In 2020, former President Donald Trump won the state by a slim 1.3 percent margin.
The last time a Democrat claimed victory in North Carolina was back in 2008 when Barack Obama secured a narrow win by approximately 14,000 votes, marking the first such victory since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report, noted that the shift isn’t simply a reflection of Trump losing popularity in the state. Instead, she indicated that “Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points,” suggesting the dynamics are changing.
Grant Baldwin
Walter highlighted that the tightening race results primarily from Democrats and independent voters realigning with the party rather than Harris directly pulling support from Trump.
According to a recent FiveThirtyEight poll average, the race is incredibly close, with Trump leading Harris by a mere 0.2 points as of Tuesday evening, down from a 6.9 percent lead over the Democratic ticket shortly before Biden endorsed Harris on July 21.
In response to potential vulnerabilities in the state, Trump has ramped up his campaign efforts in North Carolina, hosting three rallies between July 24 and August 21, which indicates his concern over the shifting landscape.
Meanwhile, Harris has only visited North Carolina once since becoming the Democratic frontrunner. A scheduled rally with running mate Tim Walz was canceled due to weather, though more campaigning in the state is likely.
Additionally, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved North Carolina to “toss-up,” marking a notable trend as it is the first “leans Republican” state to lean towards Democrats this election cycle. The Cook Political Report similarly reclassified Minnesota and New Hampshire from “lean Democrat” to “likely Democrat.”
Walter credits Harris with successfully reenergizing the Democratic base, making historically blue states less viable targets for the Trump campaign.