Vice President Kamala Harris is showing strength in national polls, leading by four points after independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was excluded from the survey, according to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin. Silver, who founded ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight, reports that Harris commands 48.8% of the votes, while Donald Trump trails at 44.8%.
Silver noted the unusual circumstances surrounding Kennedy’s exit from the race, acknowledging that Trump’s support has risen slightly as a result, yet Harris maintains her lead, bolstered significantly after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Harris’s support is evident not just nationally but also in vital battleground states. She is ahead in Arizona (46.6% to 45.1%), Michigan (48% to 44.6%), Pennsylvania (47.7% to 46%), and Wisconsin (48.9% to 45.5%). However, Trump is leading in Georgia (47.5% to 46.8%), with a very tight race in North Carolina (Harris at 46.8% and Trump at 46.5%) and Nevada (Harris at 46.2% to Trump’s 45%).
If the election were to mirror Silver’s current polling, Harris would secure the presidency and the Electoral College, even if Trump won Nevada and North Carolina, the two closest states.
Polling dynamics shifted significantly after President Joe Biden’s unexpected departure from the race on July 21, endorsing Harris. Previously, Trump had been leading in all seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, as well as gaining traction in traditionally Democratic states like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia.
With Harris now officially the Democratic nominee, her polling numbers have surged ahead of Trump’s, paralleling a shift in betting odds where she now stands competitive.
Although polls suggest that Kennedy Jr.’s departure could benefit Trump since many of his supporters might lean towards him, political analyst Scott Jennings cautioned on CNN that Kennedy’s reputation might also deter some voters from supporting Trump come November. He remarked, “While there’s potential upside, there might be some costs too, so Trump should tread carefully.” Jennings reminisced about Kennedy’s past as a “liberal conspiracy theorist,” emphasizing the importance for Trump to avoid making unkeepable promises.