Kamala Harris: The Potential Game Changer If She Secures the Election

Election forecasts suggest that Democrats have a solid chance to keep the Senate and potentially reclaim the House from Republicans. Concerns surrounding President Joe Biden’s influence on other candidates played a part in his decision to step back from running, allowing Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee. If these projections hold true and Harris wins the presidency, she could enjoy a more favorable political landscape than Biden did when he first took office.

At the beginning of Biden’s presidency, Democrats controlled the House but faced a split Senate. Should Democrats secure both chambers and Harris ascends to the presidency, it could mirror the advantages enjoyed by former President Barack Obama in 2009, enabling Harris to more effectively pursue her campaign objectives.

House Projections

Currently, the House consists of 219 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with every seat available for election—including some that are open.

The Cook Political Report assessed all 435 House races for 2024 and found that 174 are classified as “solid Democrat” while 192 fall into the “solid Republican” category, according to the latest ratings from September 6.

If these evaluations are on target, Democrats might secure 203 seats while Republicans could take 208. The House’s fate could hinge on the 24 competitive toss-up races, which include 13 with incumbent Republicans and 9 with incumbent Democrats, along with two open seats in Michigan that were previously Democratic-held.

To claim the House majority, Democrats would need to win 15 of those toss-up races, while Republicans would have to clinch 10.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, views control of the House as a toss-up, stating it remains “highly competitive.” He also indicated that if open seats are split evenly, Republicans would retain control, although he anticipates Democrats might perform even better than an even split.

“We still don’t have a clear favorite in the House; it will likely align with the outcome of the presidential race, but it’s not a certainty,” Kondik remarked. “A slight positive for Democrats is that as Harris builds a polling lead nationally, Democrats have similarly gained traction in generic House ballot polling.”

Senate

Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, including three independents who align with them. The Cook Political Report indicates that this control is expected to continue after the election.

Gordon points out that even with control, Democrats will still lack the 60 votes necessary to bypass a filibuster. Therefore, Harris will need to collaborate with some Republicans to secure support on significant legislation.

“Holding both chambers of Congress doesn’t guarantee that she’ll achieve everything on her agenda. The real challenge arises if Republicans maintain control of even one chamber, as legislative activity will be severely curtailed,” Gordon added.