A recent survey indicates that more Americans believe Vice President Kamala Harris will win the presidency than those who actually intend to vote for her.
The Quantus Polls, conducted by Trending Politics from August 26 to 27, involved over 1,000 respondents. While Harris holds a narrow two-point lead over Trump—49 percent versus 47 percent—52 percent of voters predict her victory.
Interestingly, a segment of the respondents—about 3 percent—believe Harris will win even if they don’t plan to vote for her. Meanwhile, another poll by The Economist and YouGov shows that 40 percent of registered voters see Harris winning, compared to 34 percent for Trump.
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Political analyst Hanmer suggests that some individuals predicting a Harris win might be third-party voters, such as those supporting Jill Stein or Cornel West.
The enthusiasm surrounding Harris’ campaign is notable; her rallies in Milwaukee and Arizona attracted crowds of up to 15,000, and her DNC acceptance speech garnered 29 million viewers, making it one of the most-watched moments of the convention.
However, Hanmer cautions that early perceptions can be misleading. Historical trends show that public predictions can be off the mark; for example, a YouGov poll before the 2016 election largely favored Hillary Clinton, who ultimately lost to Trump in the electoral college.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently has an edge over Trump in electoral predictions. The Economist anticipates a close race, projecting Harris will secure 273 electoral votes to Trump’s 265, giving both candidates approximately an equal chance of winning.
Stay tuned for another forecast from renowned historian Allan Lichtman, famously known as ‘Nostradamus,’ whose predictions have captivated audiences for years, expected to be released after Labor Day.