Statistician Nate Silver, known for founding the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, recently pointed out several missteps in former President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Following the recent presidential debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Silver took to X (formerly Twitter) to share his thoughts.
He stated: “We’ll see where the model is in 2 weeks, but 4 huge mistakes for the Trump campaign so far:”
Silver outlined these four mistakes:
- Vance
- Rambling convention speech, wasting a moment of goodwill
- Unprepared for the Harris swap
- Not well-prepared for the debate or unable to maintain a strong performance
We’ll see where the model is in 2 weeks, but 4 huge mistakes for the Trump campaign so far:
1. Vance
2. Rambling convention speech, wasting a moment of goodwill
3. Unprepared for the Harris swap
4. Not well-prepared for tonight’s debate and/or unable to sustain performance https://t.co/NriJXbmqoQ— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 11, 2024
Trump appointed Senator Vance as his running mate in July, but public opinion has soured, leading to speculation about Trump’s dissatisfaction—a claim the campaign has refuted.
Silver also noted that Trump’s team seemed ill-prepared for the shift from Biden to Harris as an opponent. Post-debate discussions among a Fox News voter panel suggested that Trump stuck to attacking Biden rather than adapting to Harris.
“He’s still in his head basically trying to run against Joe Biden,” one panelist remarked.
Trump expressed his frustration on his social media platform, Truth Social, suggesting that the Republican Party should be reimbursed for the perceived fraud stemming from Biden’s ability to run effectively.
Additionally, Silver commented on Trump’s struggle during the debate, stating he lacked preparation and was unable to deliver a strong performance. Reports from the voter panel and a CNN flash poll indicated that Harris performed better in the debate.
Silver criticized Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention for being rambling and ineffective. In a subsequent post, he identified one more significant mistake: agreeing to an early debate with Biden, which he called “probably the most consequential of all.”
This debate may have prompted Biden to withdraw from the race, ultimately leading to his endorsement of Harris, whose campaign then experienced a surge in donations.