Representative Ilhan Omar from Minnesota is gearing up for a primary challenge against former Minneapolis city councilor Don Samuels this Tuesday. Recent polls indicate that Omar has a significant lead over Samuels, making her a strong contender as she seeks re-election.
This year, several progressive Democrats, part of the informal coalition known as “The Squad,” have faced tough primaries. So far, moderate Democrats have bested other Squad members such as Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush, while Summer Lee managed to secure her spot against her challenger.
Omar’s initial election came in 2018, and she narrowly beat Samuels back in 2022, winning by just two percentage points. However, current polling suggests that she stands in a stronger position going into this primary.
A recent poll by Lake Research Partners, commissioned by Omar’s campaign, shows her leading Samuels by a notable 27 points, with 60% support compared to his 33%. This survey, which involved 400 likely voters, was conducted from July 17 to 21 and carries a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Another earlier poll, conducted for Samuels’ campaign by Victoria Research & Consulting, also reflected Omar’s lead, with 49% of voters leaning towards her and 30% for Samuels. This poll had a slightly larger sample size of 519 likely voters and a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
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Fundraising is another area where Omar excels, outpacing Samuels significantly. According to their pre-primary filings with the Federal Election Commission, Omar has raised approximately $6.6 million compared to Samuels’ $1.4 million. In July alone, she brought in nearly $254,000, while Samuels raised about $138,000.
The winner of this primary is anticipated to easily carry the general election in this predominantly Democratic district, which faces little Republican opposition.
Israel has surfaced as a contentious topic in recent primaries, especially with groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) investing heavily in races against progressive incumbents. This issue has polarized the Democratic Party, especially following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that resulted in substantial casualties.
While many Democrats back Israel’s right to defend itself, others express concern over the significant Palestinian civilian deaths since the conflict escalated, with reports citing nearly 40,000 fatalities.
Bowman and Bush, also in the spotlight for their opposing positions on key legislation, faced backlash for voting against President Biden’s infrastructure bill, citing insufficient progressive measures. Their stance did not resonate positively with some voters, highlighting the risks progressive Democrats face in primaries.
“Congresswoman Omar is a robust incumbent with strong local backing and a noteworthy track record,” stated Usamah Andrabi, communications director of Justice Democrats, a PAC that supports progressive candidates, in the Star Tribune earlier this month.