During a recent speech, Vladimir Putin indirectly suggested that using Western weapons to attack Russian targets does not cross his “red line” along the Russian border, as per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Since the start of Putin’s Ukraine invasion in February 2022, Russian officials, including the Kremlin, have warned about these “red lines” that could escalate conflict, even mentioning the possibility of nuclear action if deemed necessary.
According to analysts, if Kyiv were to use American weapons to attack Russian territory, this would violate Putin’s “red line.” ISW’s recent assessment clarified that Western attacks on Russian soil would not prompt Putin to resort to nuclear weapons.
ISW expressed concerns over Putin’s remarks at the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, where he stated that Russia‘s Nuclear Doctrine allows nuclear weapon use only in exceptional cases threatening Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
Citing the use of GMLRS rockets by Ukrainian armed forces near Belgorod, fired from HIMARS, ISW highlighted Putin’s reversal in rhetoric, indicating a departure from previous nuclear threats in response to Western-backed Ukrainian attacks.
ISW also noted that past Kremlin statements highlighted instances where Ukraine and its Western allies potentially breached red lines by supplying cutting-edge military equipment to Ukraine, including F-16 jets and advanced tanks.
ISW suggested that many of Russia’s declared red lines were likely propaganda tactics to push Western nations towards self-restraint, and any major Russian response would not likely yield positive outcomes.