Recent reports suggest that former President Donald Trump’s favorable odds on a popular betting site may have been influenced by a small group of bettors, according to The Wall Street Journal.
On Polymarket, an online betting platform partly backed by Trump ally Peter Thiel, Trump’s odds against Vice President Kamala Harris have shot up to 60 percent, while Harris stands at 40 percent. This is intriguing as polls still show Harris either ahead or in a close race—though the two candidates were last tied on October 4.
According to The Wall Street Journal, this sudden spike might be misleading, potentially engineered by just four anonymous accounts that have placed about $30 million in bets on Trump. Unlike traditional betting markets, Polymarket’s odds are based on “collective wisdom,” rather than external factors like poll results.
Kevin Dietsch
Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence, mentioned there are strong indications that these accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—are likely from the same source, as they were all funded through the same crypto exchange and exhibit similar betting activity.
Political analyst Christopher Gerlacher suggested the betting surge is likely a manipulation tactic. Rajiv Sethi, an economist who once studied similar behaviors in a past election, echoed this sentiment, stating, “If I wanted to manipulate a market, this is exactly how I’d do it.”
Crypto investor Adam Cochran speculated that this betting activity might be an attempt to lay the groundwork for future claims of a “stolen” election if Trump loses to Harris.
Tom Bonier, a political strategist, pointed out in Fortune that these bets might be part of a broader strategy to alter public perception of the race. “Trump’s image as a strong candidate is vital. If he seems likely to lose, it undermines his support,” Bonier explained.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Polymarket is investigating these betting patterns and seeking help from external experts.
While the recent surge in Trump’s odds could point to market manipulation, it’s also possible that these accounts reflect genuine confidence in Trump’s chances of winning. Alternatively, the bets could serve as a hedge for individuals anticipating a Harris victory.
Sethi suggested that the account Fredi9999, which placed about $13.8 million in bets for Trump, might be from a wealthy individual who believes Trump will fare well in key areas like the Rust Belt. However, there’s also the possibility of it being a calculated effort to boost Trump’s perceived prospects, thereby energizing his base and encouraging donations.