Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s potential exit from the presidential race might complicate Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances against Donald Trump, according to recent polls.
In recent weeks, Harris has gained traction, especially after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July. Polls indicate a competitive situation in key swing states that will influence the election’s outcome. Kennedy, running as an independent after previously being a Democrat, appears on the ballot in 19 states.
However, his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, suggested on Tuesday that Kennedy might drop out of the race, indicating that his presence could be a liability for Trump. She mentioned to a Los Angeles media outlet that the campaign could “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump,” as reported by Reuters.
Kennedy himself expressed a willingness to collaborate with leaders from any political party to advance his long-held objectives, which include tackling chronic diseases, reducing military influence, cleaning up corporate corruption, combating pollution, preserving free speech, and preventing agency politicization.
Current polling suggests that if Kennedy were to exit, a greater portion of his voters might turn to Trump rather than Harris. Even though Kennedy’s support has dwindled into the single digits recently, past election results show that a small number of votes can sway outcomes in pivotal states.
A survey by The New York Times and Siena College, which focused on voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, found that 41% of Kennedy’s supporters would back Trump in a hypothetical two-way race, while only 27% would choose Harris. The poll revealed that 33% were undecided.
The research, surveying nearly 2,000 registered voters between August 5 and 9, indicated that Kennedy’s candidacy seemed to split support primarily from Trump. In a direct matchup, Harris slightly leads Trump by 2 points, but Kennedy’s inclusion brings that lead down to a mere single point.
Similarly, an Emerson College poll reported that 64% of Kennedy’s supporters would lean toward Trump, contrasting with 36% for Harris in a two-way scenario. An ActiVote poll further suggested that Kennedy pulled slightly more support away from Trump than from Harris.
Kennedy originally sought the Democratic nomination but switched to run as an independent aiming to appeal to centrist voters, while facing scrutiny for his controversial views on vaccines and various issues. His ballot presence covers vital swing states including Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.