Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has made headlines by switching from a Democratic contender to a longshot independent candidate, potentially disrupting both Republican and Democratic strategies in the upcoming November election.
Since launching his campaign last October, Kennedy has been seen as a vote-siphoner affecting both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, recent polls indicate that his presence might be more detrimental to Biden, especially in key battleground states.
With Kamala Harris now leading the Democratic ticket, several polls have suggested that Kennedy’s impact on Trump’s standing is becoming more pronounced. Harris has gained traction in battleground states, while Trump previously held leads in places like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Recently, Kennedy scored a win by securing a spot on New Jersey’s ballot, overcoming a legal challenge tied to the state’s “sore loser law” after his party switch. He is also on the ballot in 15 states so far, including North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada.
In these swing states, the polling dynamics have shifted since Harris took over. For instance, prior to July 21, Trump led Biden by 2 to 9 points in most polls. However, after Biden’s announcement not to seek reelection, Harris narrowed that gap to 1 to 4 points, with Kennedy often snagging between 4 and 5 percent of the vote.
Michigan
During the earlier months, Trump consistently led Biden in head-to-head polls. Incorporating Kennedy into the mix resulted in him polling 4 to 10 percent while Trump still held a lead in many surveys. Post-July 21, Harris notably reduced Trump’s advantage, leading in multiple polls that included Kennedy, resulting in a very competitive environment.
Nevada
In Nevada, Trump initially led Biden in most polls, but as the polls adjusted for Harris’s candidacy, she managed to close the gap slightly, with Kennedy consistently pulling in 5 to 12 percent of the votes as an independent choice.
In Conclusion
Across the board, Harris’s entrance has lead to a tightening race against Trump in critical states. Kennedy’s inclusion adds an interesting twist, affecting both major party candidates’ standings. Overall, his candidacy is complicating the political landscape, creating a more competitive race heading into the election.