Republican candidate Donald Trump has taken a slim lead over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest national polls from RealClearPolling, marking the first time since August that he’s ahead.
As of early Monday, Trump was up by just 0.1 points, with 48.5% of the vote compared to Harris’s 48.4%.
It’s important to note that while these polls reflect the popular vote, winning this doesn’t guarantee an election victory. Candidates need to secure 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes. According to FiveThirtyEight, simulations show Trump would win the electoral college 54 times out of 100, while Harris would win 45 times.
This is a notable shift from the 2020 election, where Trump was trailing Biden by 7.5 points at this stage—Trump had 43.6% support then, while Biden led with 51.1%, according to RealClearPolling.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was also ahead of Trump by 4.6 points around this time, garnering 47.1% to Trump’s 42.5%—yet Trump ultimately won the election.
Trump’s campaign believes his hard work is resonating with voters, criticizing Harris’s policies as contributing to inflation, border issues, and crime. “President Trump is out-working Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies,” said a spokesperson.
Interestingly, other major poll aggregators still show Harris with a slight lead. As of early Monday, FiveThirtyEight had Harris at 48.1% and Trump at 46.7%, while Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin blog showed Harris at 48.6% to Trump’s 47.4%.
Betting odds also lean toward Trump, who has a 61.1% chance of winning, while Harris stands at 37.7% as of Monday morning.
In the key swing states, Trump holds a slight edge in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Last week, Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania was significant, marking the first time he had the advantage there since July.
Trump had been ahead in Pennsylvania prior to Biden’s withdrawal from the race, but Harris had taken the lead since then until this recent shift in polling.