Former President Donald Trump is currently ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in betting odds, according to an average from RealClearPolitics. Bookmakers give Trump a 58.5% chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 40.4%.
This marks a significant shift from Trump’s previous presidential bids. In 2020, he trailed President Joe Biden by 19.8 points at this point in the election. Back in 2016, Trump had only a 15% chance against Hillary Clinton, who was favored at 85%.
While Trump does hold a solid lead now, it’s worth noting that he was once 48.2 points ahead just before Biden exited the race. Betting odds can hint at trends, but they don’t always guarantee election results. According to Bookmakers Review, betting markets have accurately predicted 77% of winning candidates over the past 35 years, although they missed Trump’s surprise win in 2016.
It’s essential to recognize that the political landscape can be volatile. As Gift pointed out, fluctuations in the betting markets often reflect minor events rather than a clear shift in momentum. Despite Trump’s recent lead, some analyses indicate that the election remains highly competitive.
FiveThirtyEight suggests that Harris and Trump are only separated by 2.4 points in national polls—with Harris currently leading. In key swing states, Harris holds slight advantages in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Keep in mind that polls track the popular vote, which doesn’t guarantee electoral victory. A candidate must secure 270 out of 538 Electoral College votes to win. According to simulations by FiveThirtyEight, Harris takes the Electoral College 52 times out of 100, while Trump claims victory 48 times.