According to a recent poll, former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.
The InsiderAdvantage poll, released on Tuesday, shows Trump at 49% among likely voters, while Harris trails closely at 47%. An additional 2% expressed support for another candidate, and another 2% remain undecided. You can check out the poll here.
Matt Towery, a former Republican lawmaker and the pollster behind the survey, indicated that Trump’s support is gaining traction, particularly among independent, senior, and African American voters, notably Black men. He pointed out that Harris is experiencing a decline in support within this demographic.
Towery mentioned, “The numbers suggest that Harris’s backing among African American males is slipping.” He added that while enthusiasm levels for Democrats are still slightly higher, the gap is tightening.
Scott Olson
In addition, other polls show Trump edging out Harris by 2 points in a Trafalgar Group poll and 1 point in a survey by Patriot Polling. Trafalgar leans Republican while Patriot Polling offers nonpartisan insights often skewing slightly towards Republicans.
Although some recent polls have shown Harris leading Trump, the overall trend indicates a competitive race in Pennsylvania as the election approaches. As of Tuesday evening, a FiveThirtyEight average has Harris with a narrow 0.8% advantage.
Interestingly, an online betting platform, Polymarket, revealed on Monday that Trump has the best odds yet of winning against Harris in Pennsylvania—a reflection of active betting rather than traditional polling data.
Pennsylvania is crucial for both candidates, especially since it played a significant role in the 2020 election, favoring Joe Biden, and in 2016 with Trump’s victory. It’s one of the swing states likely to determine the presidential outcome.
Current trends in other battleground states suggest competitiveness everywhere, with Harris holding slight leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump shows slight advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
With its 19 Electoral College votes, winning Pennsylvania is essential for both candidates—losing the state severely complicates the path to the presidency.