This year’s Atlantic hurricane season has been quite intense, with the U.S. coastline repeatedly affected by formidable storms.
The hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30, and 2024 has already witnessed a series of record-setting storms leading to extensive damage and loss of life.
As the latest storm, the fleeting Hurricane Oscar, begins to fade away in the Atlantic, the question arises: will there be more hurricanes in 2024?
Hurricane Season Overview
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November, a time when conditions such as warm ocean waters, low wind shear, and high atmospheric moisture are ideal for hurricane formation.
These optimal conditions typically peak in late spring and persist through early fall, providing the necessary environment for storm development and intensification.
The Storms of 2024
The season kicked off with Hurricane Beryl making landfall in Texas as a Category 1 storm on July 8, having previously reached a staggering Category 5. Beryl set several records, being the earliest Category 5 and the strongest July hurricane ever documented.
Following Beryl was Hurricane Debby, which struck Florida in early August as a Category 1. On September 11, Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana as a Category 2, causing significant flooding and storm surges. Then, just weeks later, Hurricane Helene hit Florida’s western coast on September 26, followed by Hurricane Milton on October 9, both resulting in severe flooding.
Hurricane Milton hits Florida – as seen from space.
Abundant lightning can be seen in southern Florida, where numerous tornadoes occurred today. pic.twitter.com/1X7aQCnDX5
— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) October 9, 2024
As noted by NOAA, there have only been five years since 1950 with multiple Category 5 hurricanes in a single season, highlighting the unusual intensity of 2024. Other named storms this year included Alberto, Ernesto, Gordon, Isaac, and Kirk, although these did not make landfall in the U.S.
Will More Storms Develop?
Given the late stage of the hurricane season, it’s less likely we’ll see another storm of Milton’s strength for the remainder of 2024. However, nature can be unpredictable, so vigilance is still warranted until the season officially concludes.
Before the season began, NOAA forecasted an 85 percent chance of above-normal storm activity, anticipating 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 likely to become hurricanes and 4 to 7 classified as major hurricanes. Typically, a hurricane season averages 14 named storms, with 7 reaching hurricane status and 3 becoming major hurricanes.
So far, 2024 has tallied 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This suggests that surprises could still be in store.
Current Conditions
Aside from Tropical Storm Oscar, there are no active storms or depressions in the Atlantic at the moment. Oscar, which reached Category 1 strength upon hitting Cuba, is expected to dissipate soon.
5am EDT Tue Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Oscar. The main threat is heavy rain across portions of the southeastern #Bahamas, as well as the Turks & Caicos Islands. Although rains have eased over eastern #Cuba, flooding from rain that already occurred is still a concern.
More… pic.twitter.com/QlsoiHT0Jf
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 22, 2024
The National Hurricane Center has indicated that “Oscar could dissipate later today or combine with another system in the following days.” If any new tropical depressions strengthen, they will be named Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.