Senator Deb Fischer, a Republican from Nebraska, is facing an unexpectedly close reelection battle against independent candidate Dan Osborn, according to a recent poll.
SurveyUSA’s latest survey, conducted from August 23 to 27, shows Fischer leading Osborn by just one point, 39% to 38%. This poll included 1,293 registered voters and has a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points. This tight race is surprising, considering former President Donald Trump won Nebraska by 19 points in 2020, indicating that the 2024 U.S. Senate race could be more competitive than anticipated.
Fischer’s slim lead aligns with findings from other polls. A YouGov poll from late July to early August had Fischer ahead by 2 points (43% to 41%), while a November poll by Change Research even showed Osborn leading by 2 points (40% to 38%). Conversely, a July poll from Torchlight Strategies gave Fischer a more comfortable 26-point margin (50% to 24%), underscoring the volatility of the race.
Getty Images/Anna Moneymaker
Osborn, a former U.S. Navy veteran and labor union leader, is positioning himself as a centrist choice, gradually closing the gap with Fischer despite limited name recognition—42% of voters hadn’t heard of him, suggesting growth potential in his campaign.
The Nebraska Democratic Party’s strategy to back Osborn without running their own candidate echoes moves made in the 2022 Utah Senate race, where independent Evan McMullin kept things competitive against Republican Senator Mike Lee.
Osborn’s effort to appeal to voters across party lines seems to be working. He is performing well not only in the educated, urban 2nd Congressional District but also in the exurban 1st and rural 3rd Districts compared to Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
This tight race could significantly impact Senate control. Both parties are vying for every advantage, and a potential Democratic flip in Nebraska—once thought unlikely—could shift the balance of power in the Senate.
Nevertheless, split-ticket voting has declined in recent years. Axios reported that in the 2020 election, only one Republican senator, Susan Collins of Maine, won in a state where Trump lost, suggesting that Fischer may still have an edge in a state Trump carried decisively in 2020.