With the election just a month away, Kamala Harris is leading the popular vote by a significant margin, according to recent polls.
In the last 36 years, only one Republican, George Bush, has managed to win the popular vote, and current trends suggest Trump might not be the one to change that. However, as Trump gains steam in the polls, the possibility remains that he could replicate Bush’s success.
No poll aggregators indicate that Trump is currently leading. According to Nate Silver’s model, Harris has a commanding 76 percent chance of winning the popular vote, compared to Trump’s 24 percent. The former president is projected to garner about 48 percent of the votes, while Harris is expected to receive 51 percent. This shows a slight dip for Harris since earlier in the week, when she had a 75 percent chance of winning in the electoral college compared to Trump’s 25 percent.
Online betting platform Polymarket indicates that Trump’s odds of winning the electoral college have increased from 27 percent to 36 percent since October 13, while Harris has dropped from 71 percent to 63 percent.
A recent Fox News poll highlights Trump leading by 2 points among registered voters, reflecting a notable shift from a month prior when Harris held a 2-point lead. This poll, conducted from October 11 to 14, surveyed over 1,100 registered voters.
Moreover, the recent ActiVote poll also shows Trump with a slight 1.2-point edge, reversing a prior September polling gap where Harris led by 5.4 points.
Trump seems to be gaining traction in swing states as well; Michigan just flipped in his favor for the first time since late July, with Nevada and Pennsylvania also showing Republican trends.
In Arizona and Georgia, Trump’s support has risen, while Harris’s has dipped in key states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. North Carolina shows a slight drop in Trump’s vote share, from 0.7 to 0.5 points.
Nate Silver’s latest forecast indicates 19 states have shifted toward Trump, but the competition is tight. Notably, in key swing states, Trump and Harris are increasingly close, with predictions placing Harris’s chances at 50.1 percent and Trump’s at 49.7 percent—essentially a toss-up.
“The forecast is razor-thin,” says Silver, pointing out the tight race in Midwestern battlegrounds. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker currently puts Harris just ahead of Trump nationally, by 2.4 points, while Silver shows her at a 2.8 point lead.