Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, who is known for her strong MAGA stance, might be facing a tough reelection battle in Florida’s 13th Congressional District. A recent poll from St. Pete Polls, conducted on October 20, shows her locked in a tie with Democratic challenger Whitney Fox, each garnering 45.9% of the vote. An additional 8.2% of those surveyed remain undecided.
Intriguingly, the poll suggests that Fox has managed to attract 15% of Republican voters, along with leading among independents with a 48% to 41% advantage. Interestingly, male voters lean slightly toward Fox (48% vs. 45%), while female voters prefer Luna (49% to 43%). The survey was based on 905 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
This shift comes as a setback to Luna, who previously won against moderate Democrat Eric Lynn by a substantial 8 points. Notably, that race took place during a midterm election with lower voter turnout—the situation is quite different now with Republicans currently enjoying an over 8-point lead in voter registration based on the latest L2 data.
Alex Brandon/AP
Interestingly, last week, Luna commended President Biden’s response to Hurricane Milton, which heavily impacted her district, stating that his decisive action surprised her. This remark follows criticism she faced for voting against emergency funds for FEMA just a month prior.
According to Phil Gardner, spokesperson for the Blue Dog PAC supporting Fox, “Floridians are seeking genuine leadership, not someone like Luna who has opposed disaster relief funds.” He accused Luna of focusing on cultural issues rather than actual community needs.
Despite the current tie in polls, some earlier data indicated Luna with a small lead; a WPA Intelligence poll from late August showed her 5 points ahead. However, recent shifts indicate a more competitive landscape, with Cook Political Report estimating the district as R+6, factoring in historical voting patterns and the significant portion of nonpartisan voters in the area.
This polling landscape appears to mirror broader trends in Florida, where both local and presidential races seem tightly contested. While Trump is currently leading Harris in Florida by 6 points, he is behind her in CD 13 according to the latest St. Pete Polls data, which reported him at 46.9% to Harris’s 49.9%, with just 2% undecided.
Though Democrats are showing strength in CD 13, overall prospects for winning the state remain challenged, with betting odds suggesting Harris has a mere 36% chance against Trump’s 64% likelihood of securing Florida.