President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race last Sunday, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the likely Democratic nominee. Here’s a look at how she stacks up against Republican nominee Donald Trump, based on recent polling averages.
Amidst internal debates within the Democratic Party on Biden passing the torch after his lackluster debate performance against Trump in Atlanta, the president backed Harris on the same day he exited the race. This move sparked a wave of pro-Harris memes on TikTok, over $100 million in donations, and the recruitment of 170,000 campaign volunteers.
With 100 days until Election Day on November 5, polling averages from leading sources such as The New York Times, The Hill, and RealClearPolitics reveal Trump leading Harris by a smaller margin than he led Biden prior to his withdrawal.
Key Poll Highlights
RealClearPolitics indicates the closest gap between Trump and Harris, with Trump leading by 1.7 percentage points (47.9% to 46.2%). Before stepping down, Biden trailed by 3.1 percentage points, with Trump at 47.9% according to RealClearPolitics.
The New York Times’ poll shows Trump ahead by 2 percentage points (48% to 46%) against Harris. In the previous matchup with Biden, Trump held a 3-point lead, at 47% to 44%.
The Hill’s aggregation places Trump at 48% and Harris at 45.9%, trailing by 2.1 percentage points. Prior to Biden’s exit on July 21, The Hill had him behind Trump by 3.3 points.
Latest Poll Inclusion
Post-Biden’s exit, the Morning Consult survey, conducted among 11,297 registered voters on July 22 and 23, shows Harris leading Trump by 1 point (46% to 45%). This marks the highest Democratic support level since 2022. Additionally, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted during the same period lists Harris ahead of Trump, 44% to 42%, within a margin of error of 3%.
The HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between July 22 and 25 of 3,013 voters reveals Trump at 47% and Harris at 45%. Another notable survey by Rasmussen Reports shows Trump with a 7-point lead over Harris among likely voters.
While national aggregate polls give an indication of public sentiment, the actual election outcome is determined by Electoral College votes. Candidates need to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, making state-specific victories crucial.