Recent polling indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead of former President Donald Trump in Virginia.
During a rally in Philadelphia on Monday, Trump mentioned that he had seen promising figures from the state, despite Harris being 7.6 points ahead, as reported by FiveThirtyEight. “If we win Pennsylvania, we’re going to win the whole thing, right?” he commented, expressing optimism about the upcoming elections.
Virginia has leaned Democratic in presidential elections since 2008, and although it’s not typically seen as a swing state, initial polls prior to Harris’s nomination in July showed a tighter race. Some polls even had Trump leading by as much as 5 points back then.
However, more recent polls reflect a different dynamic, with Harris leading by margins of up to 11 points. Notably, Trump has not topped any polls in Virginia since mid-July.
The changing demographics in Virginia, with an influx of populations that commonly vote Democratic, have influenced these trends significantly. From 2010 to 2022, the Hispanic/Latino population grew substantially, adding over 270,000 individuals, while the white demographic saw a decrease from 64.9% to 59.8%. By 2022, nearly 10% of eligible voters in Virginia were born outside the U.S., a jump from just 3.6% in 1990, as identified by the Pew Research Center.
These demographic shifts, alongside urbanization in suburbs, have propelled Democratic successes in Virginia, including Biden’s 10-point win in 2020 and Clinton’s 5-point victory in 2016. According to the latest Christopher Newport University poll, which took place from September 28 to October 4, Harris is leading by 11 points among likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent.
Further surveys, such as the ActiVote poll from late August and the Washington Post poll from early September, showed Harris ahead by 10 and 8 points respectively, both figures exceeding their margins of error. Emerson College’s September poll placed Harris 7 points ahead, indicating a favorable outlook.
Contrastingly, some polls report narrower leads for Harris. A Morning Consult poll from mid-August had her up by 6 points, while a Quantus poll reported just a 3-point lead in a close call. An early September poll from the University of Mary Washington found Harris just 1 point ahead, a statistical tie according to the poll’s margin of error.
As of September, RealClearPolitics updated its predictions to classify Virginia as a leaning Democratic state, a shift from earlier views of a toss-up. Their current forecast shows Harris with a 6.4-point advantage in Virginia.