Recent data from Polymarket, an online betting platform backed by early Trump supporter Peter Thiel, indicates that former President Donald Trump has gained ground against Vice President Kamala Harris in many key swing states ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
Polymarket’s odds show Trump leading in six out of seven battleground states critical to the election outcome. Trump is favored to win Arizona (68 percent), Georgia (64 percent), Pennsylvania (54 percent), Michigan (52 percent), North Carolina (63 percent), and Wisconsin (52 percent). The only state where Harris holds a slight edge is Nevada, with her chances at 51 percent compared to Trump’s 49 percent.
Although Harris is predicted to lead in the popular vote (68 percent to Trump’s 32 percent), the more critical state-wise breakdown suggests Trump’s path to an Electoral College victory is gaining momentum.
It’s important to remember that prediction markets provide insights into trends rather than definitive outcomes. However, historically, betting odds have been quite accurate, predicting 77 percent of the winning candidates in presidential elections over the last 35 years.
This accuracy extends to tight races, such as Barack Obama’s win in 2012 and the razor-thin contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000. The 2016 election was a notable outlier, where Trump defied predictions of both betting markets and polls.
Interestingly, looking back to the 1976 election, Jimmy Carter’s slight edge in betting odds didn’t fully capture the public sentiment either.
If Trump maintains his current leads in key swing states and potentially flips Minnesota—which he has a 10 percent chance of winning according to Polymarket—he could end up with an Electoral College count as high as 322 for himself, compared to 216 for Harris, indicating a decisive victory.
As the campaign wraps up, it’s essential to keep in mind that the political landscape can change swiftly.