A recent poll has given former President Donald Trump a notable advantage in Arizona, coming out on the same day that Vice President Kamala Harris is visiting the border to showcase her commitment to immigration issues.
According to the USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll conducted from September 21 to 24, Trump is leading Harris by 6 points, with 48% of surveyed voters supporting him compared to 42% for Harris. The poll included 500 voters statewide and carries a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
This announcement coincides with Harris’s anticipated trip to the U.S.-Mexico border as part of her campaign efforts in Arizona.
Immigration remains a significant concern in Arizona, with 21% of poll participants identifying it as their top issue. Notably, a Fox News poll released on September 26 indicates that 56% of respondents trust Trump more than Harris on border security, where she only garners 41% of trust.
Right: Saul Loeb, Left: Rebecca Noble/Getty images
The poll also casts doubt on Harris’s ability to secure the Latino vote in Arizona. While 47% of Latino voters favor her, 35% support Trump. This demographic represents about one-quarter of the state’s 1.3 million registered voters.
Harris’s main immigration strategy involves reviving a bipartisan border bill that was previously blocked by Senate Republicans after Trump opposed it for political reasons. This legislation was also dismissed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus over concerns regarding its punitive measures and insufficient support for long-term immigrants.
Contrasting with the USA TODAY/Suffolk survey, a Bloomberg Morning Consult poll from September 19 to 25 showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points. However, Trump’s advantage is reflected in the recent Fox News poll as well, where he also led by 3 points.
With Arizona’s 11 electoral college votes, it is a vital state for both candidates in their quest to reach the 270 votes needed to win the presidency.
Andrew Harnik/Getty images
The polling results for the U.S. Senate race in Arizona present a different picture. Democrat Ruben Gallego is significantly ahead of Republican Kari Lake. According to the Fox News poll from September 26, Gallego stands at 55% among likely voters and 56% among registered voters, compared to Lake’s 42% in both categories.
The Gallego campaign has been reached out to via email, while the Lake campaign has been contacted through their online form for comments.
Interestingly, the Fox News poll illustrates a trend of ticket-splitting among Arizona voters. Independents are 16 points more likely to support Gallego while not backing Harris, and Republicans show a similar trend favoring Gallego over Harris by 10 points. Remarkably, only 3% of poll respondents indicated they would vote for both Lake and Harris.