The latest national poll released on Saturday reveals that former President Donald Trump has tied with Vice President Kamala Harris, making the presidential race incredibly tight with just ten days to go until Election Day.
Current polling suggests a shift in dynamics, with Trump gaining traction while Harris, who previously had a lead, is losing ground. This marks the first time since early August that Trump has surpassed Harris in four major national surveys.
According to an Emerson College Polling survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted from October 23 to 24, both candidates stand at 49 percent, with only 1 percent undecided and another 1 percent leaning towards third-party options. The poll carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
“Male voters are siding with Trump by 13 points, while women favor Harris by 10 points,” commented Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “This indicates a more significant shift towards Trump compared to 2020.”
Interestingly, while a slight majority expect Trump to win, with 50.4 percent believing he will become president versus 48.5 percent for Harris, Harris maintains a balanced favorability rating—50 percent favorable versus 50 percent unfavorable. In comparison, Trump holds a favorability rating of 49 percent, with 51 percent of respondents viewing him unfavorably.
This survey reflects a growing trend of support for Trump leading up to the election. Earlier polls showed Harris with leads ranging from 1 to 4 percentage points, but those numbers have now evened out.
In an earlier poll conducted from October 14 to 16, Harris held a marginal 1 percent lead (49 to 48 percent). The previous Emerson poll emphasized similar findings as well, reflecting the hotly contested nature of this election.
Additional polls substantiate these trends; a recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. This poll included responses from 2,516 registered voters over the phone, also confirming the neck-and-neck race.
Moreover, a Wall Street Journal poll conducted from October 19 to 22 indicates Trump leading Harris by 2 points (47 to 45 percent), although it falls within the margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points.
As we inch closer to Election Day, it’s crucial to remember that while national polls gauge overall voter sentiment, the individual state results truly decide the election through the Electoral College. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, which doesn’t always correspond with the popular vote.
Polling expert Nate Silver recently gave Trump a 53.4 percent chance of winning the presidency, with Harris at 46.3 percent. Similarly, FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast shows Trump with a 53 percent likelihood of winning against Harris’ 47 percent.