Donald Trump is gaining traction among white women voters without a college degree, a pivotal group for the upcoming election. Recent polling by PBS News/NPR/Marist, conducted from September 27 to October 1, shows Trump leading in this demographic with 55% support compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 42%.
The poll, which surveyed 1,294 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points. Historically, Trump has performed well among white and non-college educated voters, which raises concerns for Harris, especially given the importance of suburban women in key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Republican strategist Kevin Madden noted that suburban women represent a vital target for both campaigns. Harris has been emphasizing reproductive rights to appeal to these voters, who were crucial to President Biden’s 2020 win; he captured 59% of suburban women’s votes to Trump’s 40%. This represents a shift from their support in the 2016 election.
However, Harris appears to be struggling to win over these voters this time. A survey from the Place America First super PAC revealed that 72% of suburban women in swing states rank the economy as their top concern, with 70% believing that Harris doesn’t have effective solutions compared to Trump. This poll was taken shortly after the recent debate between the candidates.
To secure victory in November, Harris needs to capture 44 electoral votes from toss-up states, making wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin essential. Current projections show her leading by a narrow margin of just 0.5 to 2 points in these states, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Harris’s campaign is honing in on issues that resonate with women, such as abortion rights, health care, and inflation. Jane Ruby, president of the League of Women Voters of Chicago, pointed out that these topics strongly appeal to suburban voters, a demographic that increasingly resembles swing states.
Tresa Undem, a survey researcher for progressive groups, highlighted that for many pro-choice suburban women, abortion is a leading issue tied to their rights and autonomy. Ironically, Trump’s administration is seen as a source of vulnerability for women seeking control over their own bodies, contrasting sharply with the issues they care about.