As we head into the final week of the 2024 election, the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is tighter than ever.
Current polls suggest Trump has a slight edge over Harris, even though she leads in national averages. The landscape in the critical swing states, which will likely decide the election, shows both candidates virtually neck-and-neck.
Pollster Nate Silver, known for his insights on electoral forecasting, describes the race as a “50-50 toss-up,” though he feels Trump may have the advantage when it comes to the Electoral College. He advises us to stay open-minded about the potential for unexpected outcomes on either side.
The path to victory for Harris involves securing key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump could clinch the election by winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
National Polling Averages
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently holds a narrow nationwide lead of 1.4 points over Trump (48.1% to 46.7%), though this has decreased from 1.7 points last week.
Trump is given a 54% chance of winning, highlighting the unpredictability of the race. “It’s essential to remember that just because polls are close doesn’t mean the final result will be,” notes G. Elliott Morris from FiveThirtyEight. He emphasizes that all swing states remain within the margin of error.
In the latest figures, Silver’s model shows Harris ahead by 1.1 points (48.6% to 47.5%), with Trump’s numbers inching up by 0.5 points from the previous week. Notably, RealClearPolitics recently reported that Trump has taken a slight lead in their national averages.
Swing State Dynamics
FiveThirtyEight indicates an extremely competitive environment in four of the seven battleground states. For instance, Harris is leading by minimal margins in Nevada (0.1 points), Wisconsin (0.3 points), and Michigan (0.7 points), while Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania (0.4 points).
Trump has larger leads in North Carolina (1.1 points), Georgia (1.8 points), and Arizona (2.2 points). Meanwhile, Silver Bulletin aligns most closely with this data, showing very narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin for Harris while Trump leads in all other swing states except Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics.
The election remains fiercely contested as both candidates rally for votes in these pivotal territories.