Recent polling data suggests that Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a 6-point lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race. Conducted by ActiVote from August 6 to September 5, the poll reveals Slotkin leading with 53.2 percent compared to Rogers’ 46.8 percent, a margin that exceeds the 4.9 percent margin of error.
This battle for the Senate seat opened up after long-time incumbent Debbie Stabenow announced her retirement after 23 years, making the outcome crucial for the Democrats’ slim Senate majority heading into 2025.
Earlier polls have shown Slotkin maintaining a strong advantage, with a Glengariff Group poll from August 29 indicating a 9-point margin and another from TIPP Insights showing a 12-point lead. The RealClearPolitics poll tracker confirms an average lead of 4.8 points for Slotkin.
However, Rogers’ campaign is bolstered by endorsements from high-profile figures like former President Donald Trump and support from national Republican organizations, which may prove vital as the election approaches. Interestingly, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report categorizes the race as a tossup.
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According to former Michigan Republican Rep. Fred Upton, the competition will be fierce. He stated, “This race is going to go down to the wire… They really know the issues and will go toe to toe on them.” Michigan has not seen a Republican Senate win since 1994.
The latest ActiVote poll highlights Slotkin’s solid support among urban, younger, and female voters, while Rogers performs better with suburban, older, and male demographics. Interestingly, Slotkin also leads slightly among white voters and those with lower educational attainment, contrasted with Rogers’ appeal to more educated voters. Keep in mind, however, that this poll’s sample size may limit its representativeness.
The candidates are evenly matched among independents and rural voters.
Slotkin, representing Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, is a former CIA analyst and Department of Defense official, while Rogers has a background as an FBI special agent and has chaired the House Intelligence Committee.
There were initially three debates scheduled by the Michigan Debate Task Force, starting September 12, but Slotkin will not participate in those. Instead, she plans to join two televised debates on October 9 and 14, which her spokesperson says aligns with previous statewide election practices.
Rogers has committed to participating in all three debates organized by the Task Force, stating, “We’ll do all three, absolutely,” though he has yet to confirm attendance at the televised events.
In a statement, Slotkin expressed eagerness to debate Rogers, emphasizing the importance of accountability in their discussions leading up to the election.