Recent polls from Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos reveal little change in the presidential race. Former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by 4 and 3 percentage points in these surveys, respectively.
In the latest Morning Consult poll, Trump secured 46% support compared to Harris’ 50%. Similarly, in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, both candidates saw a slight boost—Trump rose to 43% and Harris to 46%, compared to their previous standings of 42% and 45%.
Some experts believe Trump still has a path to gain ground. “The race is a toss-up now and will likely remain so leading up to Election Day,” one analyst commented. “If low-propensity voters turn out, Trump might outperform his 2020 results. However, if the anti-MAGA coalition shows up as they did in previous elections, Trump’s gains might not matter.”
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Swing State Dynamics
Klink, an analyst who claims Trump is “surging” in crucial swing states, labeled national polls as “meaningless.” He predicts that Democrats in populous cities will likely secure the popular vote for Harris. A visible shift is also noted in the campaign tactics of vulnerable Democrats, like Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, who now emphasizes support for Trump’s policies in his ads.
Georgia Scene
Trump is gaining momentum in Georgia. A recent Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll indicated he’s 1 point ahead. Previous polls from earlier this month also showed a tight race. Another poll from AtlasIntel confirms Trump leading by a point this month.
“There remains a small pool of undecided voters,” Amburn stated. “The key question is whether Republicans who opted out in 2020 will rally for Trump this time. This could determine the election outcome. Harris seems to have more momentum with new voters.”
Other Battleground States
Shifts are observed in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Trump’s support in Arizona has reportedly increased by 1 point in some polls. However, AtlasIntel noted a slight dip for Trump there.
In Michigan, polls from RMG Research show a previously significant lead for Harris evaporating into a tie, while InsiderAdvantage shows Trump now ahead by 2 points. Conversely, in Wisconsin, polls suggest a reversal, with Harris taking the lead after Trump previously held a slight advantage.
In Nevada, polling trends are mixed, but InsiderAdvantage indicates a tie, while AtlasIntel notes a tighter race compared to last month.
Stagnation in Some States
Polling in Pennsylvania and North Carolina appears stagnant. In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a consistent 3-point advantage, while North Carolina shows Harris maintaining a steady lead of 2 points, though some polls suggest Trump has surged ahead.
The Relevance of National Polls
While some contend national polls are insignificant, they can still reveal broader trends. “Ultimately, for Trump to win, he needs to make Harris more unfavorable. This becomes complicated if he’s outspent,” stated Townsend.
Analysts agree that Harris holds a significant position, with a 4-point national lead likely predicting success in swing states. “It’s a long journey to Election Day, but currently, Harris enjoys a clearer path than Trump,” continued Bitecofer, emphasizing the tight competition ahead.