It seems Vice President Kamala Harris may soon be facing a reality check as her political “honeymoon” appears to be winding down. A leading political scientist cautioned that as the campaign progresses, Harris is likely to encounter heightened scrutiny over her policy positions, many of which are considered to lean left of where the average U.S. voter stands.
After President Biden pulled out of the race and endorsed Harris on July 21, she quickly became the presumptive Democratic nominee. Early polls showed her leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, in multiple surveys, positioning her as a frontrunner for the upcoming election.
However, recent trends indicate a shift. Bookmakers such as Paddypower and William Hill are now favoring Trump over Harris, and a new Navigator Research poll revealed that Harris is either trailing or in a tie against Trump in key battleground states.
The survey, which included 600 likely voters from states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, suggested Trump leads Harris by narrow margins in Arizona and Pennsylvania while they are tied in Michigan and Wisconsin. Notably, Biden won most of these states in 2020.
On the independent front, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who initially ran as a Democrat, suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump, which may further complicate Harris’s prospects in states like North Carolina and Nevada.
As of now, polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump by 3.5 points. However, political analysts warn that the initial excitement surrounding Harris may wane as she clarifies her policies and faces Trump’s attacks, which are expected to highlight her “San Francisco liberal” reputation.
Mark Shanahan, a political science professor at the University of Surrey, called the race “too close to call” but suggested that Harris could see an uptick in support following her compelling acceptance speech at the DNC. He emphasized the importance of sustaining that momentum during her campaign trail and emphasized the critical upcoming debate on September 10.
Christopher Phelps, a historian from the University of Nottingham, echoed similar sentiments, noting that Harris leads in polling for key states, but cautioned that the months leading to the election could be unpredictable. He suggested that if Harris performs well in the debate, she might solidify her chances, provided she maintains campaign energy through the final stretch.
Update 8/24/24 3:15 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with comments from the Trump campaign and academic insights.