Is Ted Cruz at Risk of Losing His Seat in Texas?

Senator Ted Cruz is facing an unexpectedly tight race in Texas, as recent polls indicate his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, is gaining ground.

Historically, Texas has been a Republican stronghold, consistently electing Republicans to the Senate since 1990 and the governorship since 1994. The state hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate since 1976, and Donald Trump is expected to perform well in Texas again this November.

However, the latest polling indicates that Cruz might be in trouble, with a recent Morning Consult poll, conducted September 9-18, showing Allred leading by one point—45% to Cruz’s 44%—among 2,716 likely voters. This lead falls within the poll’s margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

Allred expressed his excitement over the results, saying, “For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by 1 point. I don’t know about y’all, but I’m fired up and ready to WIN! We’ve got 47 days, let’s do this Texas,” in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Despite this lead, other polls suggest that Cruz retains a slim advantage. An Emerson College and The Hill poll conducted from September 3-5 showed Cruz leading by 4 points, just outside the margin of error of +/-3.3 percent.

“The Texas Senate race is a tossup. It always should have been considered one. While Cruz could still win, the race is anyone’s for the taking,” noted an analyst.

Currently, The Cook Political Report categorizes the Texas Senate race as likely Republican, and RealClearPolitics shows Cruz averaging a 6-point lead. Still, some Republican insiders are concerned about the closeness of the race.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, highlighted the tension among Republicans by stating, “What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas? I think I know … and I think I know his name… time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz,” via X.

Another factor to consider is the significant fundraising disparity. Since joining the race in May 2023, Allred has raised about $38.4 million, while Cruz has amassed an impressive $59.6 million. Currently, Cruz holds $12.7 million in cash reserves compared to Allred’s $10.5 million.

Cruz narrowly defeated Beto O’Rourke in 2018 by just over 214,000 votes out of more than 8 million cast, illustrating that Democratic prospects in Texas shouldn’t be dismissed. “The common argument is that a Democrat can’t win statewide here. But states change and populations shift. Cruz won by just 2 points six years ago in a state that’s becoming more purple,” emphasized another commentator.

While the landscape appears to be tightening, analysts warn against overreacting to the Morning Consult poll as it’s the only one showing Allred in the lead. Without significant changes, it might be unlikely for Allred to unseat Cruz, though we can expect a closely fought battle ahead.