Kamala Harris is looking more competitive for the 2024 election, as recent forecasts indicate a solid boost in her chances.
The Economist reports Harris now holds a 60% chance of winning the Electoral College come November, while Donald Trump sits at 40%. This is the best position Harris has found herself in since she became the Democratic nominee. The prediction suggests she could secure 281 Electoral College votes, with Trump trailing at 257.
Harris’ probabilities have significantly improved—up 10% from a balanced 50-50 split with Trump back on September 8. Just three weeks ago, she was projected to receive 270 votes, narrowly edging Trump’s predicted 268.
Overall, Harris has climbed to a 58% chance of winning the election since September 8, while Trump’s likelihood has dropped to 41%—a decrease of 7%.
The forecast anticipates Harris winning key swing states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, whereas Trump is expected to prevail in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
In the latest polls, Harris is getting positive feedback. A recent Outward Intelligence poll shows her leading by 6 points among 1,735 likely voters nationwide.
Another poll by Echelon Insights found her ahead of Trump by 7 points in a direct matchup, garnering 52% of the vote against his 45%. This particular survey included 1,005 likely voters.
Another recent survey by Clarity Campaign Labs also had Harris ahead by 7 points.
Not all polls align, though; some, including a Quinnipiac University survey, show Trump leading by a point when third-party candidates are considered. Similarly, a CNN/SSRS poll found both candidates tied among registered voters with third-party options included.
Despite the rollercoaster of poll results, Harris consistently ranks ahead in polling averages. For instance, FiveThirtyEight’s tracker indicates she has a 2.8-point lead, with 48.6% compared to Trump’s 45.7%.
Forecasts suggest Harris has a 57% chance of winning, likely gaining 283 Electoral votes against Trump’s 255. Meanwhile, Race to the White House offers a 60% chance for Harris, projecting her to secure 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248.
Nate Silver’s tracker also shows Harris with a 3-point lead, but his Electoral College outlook isn’t as favorable for her; he notes that the crossroad between the popular vote and the Electoral College remains highly competitive.
“Our forecast indicates Kamala Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote, but the Electoral College is essentially a toss-up,” Silver remarked.
Ultimately, the fate of the election hinges on the outcomes in seven critical swing states. Forecasts vary, with slight predictions of wins by either candidate—one point margins in pivotal states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina favor Trump, while Harris is expected to lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada by smaller margins.
These narrow takes in swing states set the stage for what could be one of the closest presidential races in over a century, according to FiveThirtyEight.