Vice President Kamala Harris is facing challenges in her campaign, as new polling shows her lagging behind former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania—a key state for her presidential ambitions.
The recent co/efficient poll, conducted from September 4 to 6, reveals Trump with a narrow 48 percent to 46 percent lead over Harris among 889 likely voters in Pennsylvania. This poll also carries a margin of error of 3 percent.
This poll drops just before the highly anticipated first debate between Harris and Trump, scheduled in Philadelphia—significant as it will be their first face-off since she secured the Democratic nomination back in July.
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With Pennsylvania being a crucial swing state that has sided with the winner in the past two elections by thin margins, this year’s race appears to be shaping up similarly close.
The unfavorable poll results for Harris in Pennsylvania follow previous surveys from late August, which also indicated Trump’s lead. Notably, earlier polls by Cygnal and Emerson College showed Trump ahead by 1 point.
However, not all surveys favor Trump; a Morning Consult poll from August 30 to September 8 showed Harris leading by 3 points at 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent.
The tight race means it’s premature to reach any conclusions. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris trails Trump by only 0.7 percent, while RealClearPolitics reports them in a tie at 47.6 percent.
For Harris, securing victories in Philadelphia and its suburbs is essential, particularly among the city’s significant Black population. Additionally, she must work on reducing Trump’s leads among white voters in rural areas.
Losing Pennsylvania would severely hinder Harris’s pathway to the presidency, considering the state’s 19 crucial Electoral College votes.
Both candidates understand the importance of Pennsylvania and have been active there; Harris introduced her running mate, Tim Walz, in Philadelphia with a motivating speech featuring Governor Josh Shapiro. On the other hand, Trump has made multiple visits since surviving an assassination attempt in July, holding rallies and emphasizing critiques of Harris’s energy policies.
The pressure is on for Harris as no Democrat has won the presidency without Pennsylvania since 1948.
Prior to Harris’s candidacy, polls indicated Trump was leading President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by 2 to 7 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.