Recent polling updates suggest a slight momentum shift toward Vice President Kamala Harris in key swing states. According to Nate Silver’s latest model, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia are showing signs of favoring the Democratic candidate.
Over the past month, many battleground states had been leaning towards former President Donald Trump. However, the past week has brought a glimmer of hope for the Harris campaign, with her currently polling at 48.6% versus Trump’s 47.4% nationally.
In Michigan, there has been a slight 0.2-point increase for the Democrats, putting Harris ahead with 48.1% to Trump’s 47.4%. Notably, Trump was the first Republican to win Michigan since the 1980s in the 2016 election, making the state a crucial player in the upcoming race.
Meanwhile, Harris is also gaining ground in Wisconsin, where she leads Trump by 0.5 points after a similar 0.2-point gain. Historically a Democratic stronghold, Wisconsin’s support is crucial as Harris aims to maintain the “Blue Wall” established by Joe Biden in 2020.
Georgia, a diverse state with a significant Black population, is another focal point. Harris has made slight gains here as well, improving by 0.1 points, although Trump still holds a lead of 1.4 points. Recently, former President Obama rallied support for Harris in Georgia, backed by high-profile celebrities like Bruce Springsteen and Samuel L. Jackson.
Despite these small shifts, Harris is currently leading in only two out of seven battleground states—Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump continues to hold an advantage in Arizona (by 2.1 points) and North Carolina (by 1.3 points), while the race is tight in Nevada where both candidates are even at 47.9%. In Pennsylvania, often the deciding factor in presidential races, Harris trails by just 0.3 points.
Political analysts note that historically, since 1948, no Democratic candidate has won the presidency without securing Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, which have chosen the eventual winner in 48 out of the last 59 elections.