This year’s presidential race is heating up, with Vice President Kamala Harris currently leading former President Donald Trump in three key swing states, according to recent national poll aggregators.
Harris entered the race about 100 days ahead of the November election after President Joe Biden stepped aside on July 21. So far, she’s outpacing Trump in most aggregate national polls.
While national polls can give a sense of the popular vote, they don’t guarantee the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency. This is why candidates often focus on swing states, where winning just a few crucial votes can make all the difference.
If Harris secures wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—along with any state Biden won by at least 6 points in 2020—she would reach the 270 electoral votes needed for a clear path to victory.
Four different poll aggregators suggest she could achieve this. These polls are updated frequently as new data comes in, reflecting real-time changes. Here’s a snapshot as of Saturday morning.
Harris is also gaining momentum in other close states like Arizona and Nevada, potentially opening up additional avenues for a winning campaign.
Michigan
In Michigan, Harris is currently ahead of Trump by approximately 2 percentage points in aggregate polls.
The Hill reports a 1.7-point lead for Harris (48.1% to Trump’s 46.4%). The New York Times shows a 2-point edge, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%. Notably, when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is factored in, the spread narrows to just a single point.
FiveThirtyEight lists Harris at 45.9% to Trump’s 43.3%, giving her a 2.5-point lead, while the Silver Bulletin indicates her lead could be as high as 2.9 points.
In 2020, Biden won Michigan’s 15 Electoral College votes by a margin of 2.8 percentage points.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania presents a tighter contest; however, polls still show Harris edging Trump for the state’s 19 electoral votes.
The Hill sets the margin at 0.8 points (Harris at 48.2% and Trump at 47.4%). The New York Times indicates a somewhat larger gap, with Harris at 49% and Trump at 48%. With Kennedy Jr. in the mix, both candidates drop to 46%.
FiveThirtyEight has Trump trailing by 1.3 points, while the Silver Bulletin shows a 1.9 point lead for Harris.
In the previous election cycle, Biden managed to flip Pennsylvania, reversing its prior 2016 vote for Trump.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has become a prominent campaign battleground for both candidates. Recently, both Harris and Trump campaigned extensively in the state.
Polls indicate that Harris is performing best here among the three swing states, with The Hill showing her leading by 3.4 points (49.5% to Trump’s 46.1%). FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 2.8-point lead, while the Silver Bulletin finds her at 47.3% and Trump at 44.1%. The New York Times reflects a 2-point gap as well.
Biden narrowly secured Wisconsin in 2020 by just 0.6%, confirmed by a recount.