As of Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris, the probable Democratic presidential candidate, is narrowly leading former President Donald Trump in several key national polls. This surge in support follows President Joe Biden’s surprising announcement to step back from the race and endorse Harris, strengthening her position within the party as she gears up for the November election.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s national poll aggregator, Harris is ahead by 1.6 percentage points, with 45.3% support compared to Trump’s 43.7%. These aggregate polls are regularly updated as new data rolls in, providing real-time insights into shifting voter sentiments.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin forecast showcases a slightly tighter race, with Harris at 45.5% and Trump at 44.1%. This model indicates that Harris gained a slight lead on July 31, which has gradually expanded. Meanwhile, the Race to the WH shows the tightest margin, with Harris at 47.3% and Trump at 47.1%. Including third-party candidates in the mix, it suggests Harris at 44.7% and Trump at 43.7%, alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5.7% and Cornel West at 0.7%.
However, not all polls favor Harris; some, including The New York Times, show Trump ahead by 1 point (48% to 47%). Interestingly, when third-party candidates are considered, both candidates drop to an even 44%. The Hill notes Trump’s slight lead of 1.1 percentage points, while RealClearPolitics shows him ahead by 0.8 points.
The fluctuating aggregate polls suggest an intensely competitive presidential race, with each candidate’s position continuously evolving. Remember, winning the presidency hinges on securing 270 Electoral College votes, a detail that national polls don’t always accurately reflect due to the significance of state victories.
Focusing on battleground states, which are critical for electoral votes, a CBS News/YouGov survey from late July indicated a tight contest: Harris leads in one swing state, Trump in three, and ties in another three.